We Can't Turn The Census Clock Back
But, there could be some counter-moves to minimize negative impacts
Publisher’s Riff
Census numbers are out and, of course, we can't turn back. There is a lot of reason not to trust these numbers: we had a president at the time of the 2020 Census count who was an unadulterated, open white supremacist and was doing everything he could to sabotage his own government's Census. That took up a lot of energy and time from the effort. In addition, the Census Bureau was trying to do its job in the middle of a pandemic, through shut downs and social distancing, so it's easy to assume many people, especially in "hard-to-reach" Black and Brown and other BIPOC communities, were not counted.
It's difficult to consider these numbers complete or accurate. That's tragic when you have over $1.5 trillion in Census-oriented funding, quality-of-life (workforce, transportation, business location, school building/improvement) decisions and political power all at stake. For good reason; yet, it's somewhat unrealistic to consider a do-over. Only Congress can enact that, and there's no appetite in this kind of Congress for such. So, in the meantime, the Census numbers we have are being politically weaponized - as expected - by Republicans against Democrats and, by virtue of that, against Black, Indigenous and Brown populations aligning themselves electorally (and out of survival) with Democrats.
There were a dozen states impacted in terms of Congressional/House seats gained and lost. The states that gained the most Congressional (House) seats and their corresponding 1) state partisan makeup and 2) Electoral College outcome were ...
Texas +2 (Republican Governor and state legislature) = Trump
Colorado +1 (Democratic Governor and state legislature) = Biden
Florida +1 (Republican Governor and state legislature) = Trump
Montana +1 (Republican Governor and state legislature) = Trump
Oregon +1 (Democratic Governor and state legislature) = Biden
North Carolina +1 (Democratic Governor and GOP state legislature) = Trump
States losing the most Congressional seats were ...
California -1 (Democratic Governor and state legislature) = Biden
Illinois -1 (Democratic Governor and state legislature) = Biden
Michigan -1 (Democratic Governor and GOP state legislature) = Biden
Pennsylvania -1 (Democratic Governor and GOP state legislature) = Biden
New York -1 (Democratic Governor and state legislature) = Biden
West Virginia -1 (Republican Governor and state legislature) = Trump
Ohio -1 (Republican Governor and state legislature) = Trump
Basically, 58 percent of the states that gained House seats are "red states" or states dominated by Republicans (3.5 out of the 6 states since North Carolina is a split government). About 50 percent of the states that lost House seats are full "blue states" (3 out of 6), along with 33 percent (2 out of 6) that are Democratic governors. In terms of the Electoral College, 66 percent of states gaining seats were Trump-won states and 66 percent of states losing seats were Biden-won states. Hence, one big takeaway is that, if the Census were an all-out electoral contest based on these twelve states, Trump’s chances of winning increase substantially. It also means that even though Biden would still have won in 2020 with this Census map, he would have lost 3 electoral college votes, thereby making the final count 303 (Biden) vs. 235 (Trump). In terms of what could happen in the makeup of the U.S. House in 2022, Democrats potentially lose 3.5 seats while Republicans gain that same number, presenting Democrats with an already slim majority of 219 to 215 (+4 vacancies) transformed into a tied 219 to 219 (if the 4 filled vacancies stick with their current composition) by 2022.
What we see here is the GOP in a much better position to continuing playing map games. In that sense, the Census numbers are politically rigged. The big question is: What can we do about that?
We can't redo the Census. But, Democrats could deploy a 7-prong strategy that continues to amplify the war between good and evil (democracy vs. white tribalism) that's still raging ... and threatens to rip the Republic to shreds if the clear and present evil wins.
Hence, Democrats will really need to ...
1) More Lawsuits ... and More Lawsuits. Democrats must aggressively step up their legal fight against nefarious attempts to racially gerrymander districts. Wear Republicans out with these - which is what Republicans, successfully, do to Democrats. The legal onslaught must be relentless as a way to drain Republican campaign resources from the 2022 mid-term fight and also in the battle for state legislatures and state judicial contests.
Meanwhile, State Gubernatorial and Legislative Fight, 2) Democrats must really look to expand their Governor and state legislative map in 2022, they've got pickup opportunities there, and going on the offensive can help blunt GOP energy from the impending redistricting/gerrymandering effort along with other future benefits.
In the meantime, and right now, State Judicial Fight, 3) Democrats should make sure to battle intensely in the current slate of state judicial elections in Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin, looking for opportunities to control state courts that could decide future electoral and voting rights battles. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court battle in 2021 is a key race state Democrats should put time and money in to. Performance in these races could condition Democrats for a larger range of state supreme court and intermediate court elections in 2022, as well.
In addition, Clear Policy Movement, 4) Democrats need to mobilize their base voters wherever they are while pushing strong on key policy items that resonate with all voters in a way where all Congressional Dem incumbents and candidates are on message.
Speaking of message, Unified 2022 Messaging, 5) Democrats really need a unifying theme message that helps them offset potential GOP gains in 2022 (that's another discussion). Right now, the messaging is fractured, disjointed and vulnerable.
But, Census Movement, 6) the outrage over the Census must be turned into a sustained mobilization vehicle and effort that educates the most impacted public about how important the Census is - Census advocates and the civil rights community really keep dropping the ball on this issue because they wait every 10 years before they bring it up. That has to stop.
Lastly Redistricting Commissions, 7) that non-stop, sustained and annual Census effort should result in heightened voter advocacy and mobilization in Census-impacted states with independent redistricting commissions so as to control the outcome of redistricting mapping sessions …
That should be keyed up in California, Colorado, Michigan, New York, maybe Ohio and Pennsylvania. At the very least: Democrats need to get busy educating their voters and increasing public awareness around these commissions and redistricting processes right about now.