Voters Still Feel This Race Is a Tie
Trendency's latest data insights show Biden’s lead slowly increasing over the last month - but, one voting bloc may not be totally honest (& another is confused)
a Trendency feature
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Trendency’s 2020 Voter Average Allocation continue to show Biden’s lead slowly increase over the last month among registered voters (50-37). Trendency also found Biden’s lead increased in both our Commitment Index (now a 14-point lead) and Higher Allocation (13-point lead).
However, voters still feel this race is locked in a tie. Registered voters gave Biden a 51 percent chance of winning and Trump a 49 percent chance. Furthermore, when we ask voters how their friends were voting this fall, Biden lead by only 6-points. Does this mean there is an underrepresented Trump vote? We aren’t sure yet, but we are going to dig further into the data to find out.
As a reminder, Tendency Panelists do not choose one position over the other but allocate their response overall choices given. Trendency’s Average Allocation is the average score, in this case, of percentage votes among 1) Trump, 2) Biden, 3) a third-party candidate, and 4) “not voting.” This nuanced approach helps identify shifts or strengthening or weakening of a position. In this case, while we don’t see a significant shift among registered voters, we do see it among a few key constituencies.
Trendency’s Higher Allocation measurement ignores voter intensity and captures more of a “horse-race” top-line look. Of Trendency’s panelists, 50 percent allocated more to Biden, while 37 percent allocated more to Trump, with 13 percent giving Biden-Trump equal allocation.
Voter Availability:
Trendency has three categories of voter intensity:
Committed Voter Index
Available Voters
Unavailable Voters
Available voters are voters that are either leaning or open to voting for a candidate - effectively the candidates’ ceiling. The “floor” is a candidate’s Commitment Index. These are voters that are highly likely to turn out and vote for their candidate. Unavailable Vote is just the opposite, these are voters that will either not turnout or vote for one of your opponents (3rd party or the other major candidate).
After little to no change in Biden’ Committed Voter Index throughout the summer, we see Biden’s Committed Voter Index increased by 3 points to 40 percent. Trump’s Committed Voter index dropped to 26 percent. Looking at the Unavailable Voter Index, we see both candidates shares dropped slightly, Biden by 4-points, and Trump by 2-points, indicating there is a small increase of voters willing to considered either candidate. However, the President’s Unavailable Voter Index is still close to half of registered voters, meaning half would reject Trump’s candidacy out of hand and would not vote for the President, reducing the opportunity to make up much-needed ground.
Trend Lines of Key Constituencies
We continue following four key constituencies: senior voters (age 65 and over), Black Voters, White voters and voters that identify as independents. There are several other key demographics that we are closely monitoring including education, household income, and previous voting history, but Trendency has identified these four as critical players in the 2020 presidential contest.
Vote of Support and Opposition
As we saw in 2016, Trump voters weren’t just voting for the first-time candidate, but also voting against Hilly Clinton. This proved to a significant factor for voters in the final weeks of the 2016 election when the FBI opened (and closed, again) an investigation to the former Secretary of State. So it got us thinking how voters were thinking about their choices this year. Are Biden voters supporting Biden? Or is their vote more an anti-Trump vote? And what about Trump Voters? Are they anti-Biden or more pro-Trump?
Percentage of Your Friends and Family Vote
A different approach to look at how 2020 may turn out is to ask voters how the people they know best, friends and family, will be voting in the upcoming election. This is a potential method to see if there is a silent or under represented group of voters that we are missing.
Voter’s Odds on Winning Election
Regardless of which candidate they are supporting, voters sometimes have a good feel for which candidate is going to win. Whether it’s from public data they are seeing in the media or conversations with friends and family members. As we see in our most recent data, people feel the race is a lot closer than public polls indicate.
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