Trendency's Update on the 2020 Vote
Trendency’s 2020 Voter Average Allocation shows Biden with a 14.5-point lead over Trump, a small increase over the last month - but, Commitment & High Allocation points for Biden remain the same
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Trendency’s 2020 Voter Average Allocation shows Vice President Biden with a 14.5-point lead over President Trump, a small increase over the last month.
However, in two other metrics that Trendency is closely tracking among voters, Commitment Index and High Allocation Average, Biden’s lead remained the same over the last month. Trendency’s Higher Allocation measurement ignores voter intensity and captures more of a “horse-race” top-line look. Commitment Index the percent of truly committed supporters or “the floor” for a candidates’ vote share.
Despite Biden’s lead, voters still feel this race is close.
Registered voters gave Biden a 53 percent chance of winning and Trump a 47 percent chance, and among their friends Biden has a 10-point lead (48-38). It’s worth noting that voters have increased their likelihood of a Biden victory from 51 percent to 53 percent, and last month registered voters said that among their friends Biden had a 6-point lead (46-40). Both are small shifts among voters’ perception of the race, but they are important insights on how voters see this race as we get closer to election night.
As a reminder, Trendency Panelists do not choose one position over the other, but allocate their response overall choices given. Trendency’s Average Allocation is the average score in this case percentage vote among Trump, Biden, a third-party candidate, and not voting. This nuanced approach helps identify shifts or strengthening or weakening of a position. In this case, while we don’t see a significant shift among registered voters, we do see it among a few key constituencies (more on that below).
Trendency’s Voter Availability Measurement …
Trendency has three categories of voter intensity:
Committed Voter Index
Available Voters
Unavailable Voters
Available voters are voters that either are leaning or open to voting for a candidate - effectively the candidates’ ceiling. The “floor” is a candidate’s Commitment Index. These are voters that are highly likely to turn out and vote for their candidate.
The Unavailable Vote is just the opposite. These are voters that will either not turnout or vote for one of your opponents (3rd party or the other major candidate).
Biden and Trump’s Committed Voter Index both dropped two-points over the last month to 38 percent and 24 percent, respectively. We also see a small drop of both candidate’s Unavailable Voter Index, indicating there is a softening of support and opposition of both candidates. At this point, it’s a little bit unusual to see this shift, typically we see candidates Commitment and Unavailable Index increasing as we get closer to election day, but these shifts are well within the acceptable margins. The breakdown of Available Vote is key though because if we are to assume that there is a “silent” or “under” Trump vote that pollsters are missing, this is where it would show up. In order for Trump to overtake Biden in the popular vote, he would need 100 percent of registered voters that are open to the idea of voting for Trump to break his way.
Trendlines of Key Constituencies …
We continue to follow four key constituencies:
Senior voters (age 65 and over)
Black Voters
White voters
Voters that identify as independents
There are several other key demographics that we are closely monitoring including education, household income, and previous voting history. But Trendency has identified these four as critical players in the 2020 presidential contest.
Vote of Support & Opposition …
As we saw in 2016, Trump voters weren’t just voting for the first-time candidate, but also voting against Hilly Clinton. This proved to be a significant factor for voters in the final weeks of the 2016 election when the FBI opened (and closed, again) an investigation of the former Secretary of State. So, it got us thinking about how voters were thinking about their choices this year. Are Biden voters supporting Biden? Or is their vote more an anti-Trump vote? And what about Trump Voters? Are they anti-Biden or more pro-Trump?
How Are Your Friends and Family Voting?
A different approach to look at is to ask voters how the people they know best, friends and family, will be voting in the upcoming election. This is a potential method to see if there is a silent or underrepresented group of voters that we are missing.
Voter’s Odds on Winning Election
Regardless of which candidate they are supporting, voters sometimes have a good feel for which candidate is going to win. Whether it’s from public data they are seeing in the media or conversations with friends and family members. And as we see in our most recent data, people feel the race is a lot closer than public polls indicated.
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