Trendency: The 2020 Vote Thru COVID
Biden’s average remains higher than Trump's, but it dropped several points over the last two weeks
a Trendency feature
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While Biden’s Average Allocation remains higher than President Trump (43 percent to 35 percent), the former Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee’s average dropped four (4) points over the last two weeks, while Trump’s average has held steady at 35 percent. As a reminder, Trendency Panelists do not choose one position over the other but allocate their response over all choices given. Trendency’s Average Allocation is the average score in this case percentage vote among Trump, Biden, a third party candidate, or not voting.
When we look at Higher Allocation, we find that 47 percent of panelists allocated more to Biden, while 35 percent allocated more to Trump, with 18 percent giving Biden-Trump equal allocation.
Higher Allocation ignores the voter intensity and captures more of a “horse-race” top-line look at the race.
Voter Availability
Available voters are voters that are leaning or open to voting for a candidate and provide us with the candidate’s ceiling.
Biden’s share of available voters (42 percent) has been steadily increasing. However, when we look at Biden’s share over time, we see that this share is largely attributed to a reduction in Biden’s floor or percentage of committed voters (36 percent to 26 percent).
Trump, on the other hand, has largely increased his available voter share from voters that previously rejected the possibility of voting for the President to who are now at least open to voting for a second term. However, much like Biden, Trump also lost five points from previously committed voters, reducing his floor from 25 percent to 20 percent.
Trendlines of Key Constituencies
Two demographics that have been a particular interest to us because of their changing positions during the pandemic have been White voters and older voters (age 65 and up).
White voters previously favored the President by nearly 7 points in our average allocation before COVID. During the crisis, Biden’s numbers have improved, overtaking the President before they dropped into a tie. However, while White voters’ intensity may have slipped, White voters still prefer Trump over Biden in a head-to-head look at the higher allocation.
Older voters tell a slightly different story. There are few senior voters that are truly split between Biden-Trump (only 6 percent), and they still heavily prefer Biden (52 to 41) in higher allocation. However, Biden’s average score has dropped from 51 to 43 over the same time period.
Trendlines by Political Affiliation
Two things immediately jump when we look at trendlines by political affiliation. First, both Republicans and Democrats average allocation have recently dropped for their party’s presumptive nominee.
Secondly, the gap among voters that identified as independent has closed between Trump and Biden, however, the preference still remains among independents is clearly still with Biden (43/34) among our Higher Allocation measurement.
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