Trendency: More Americans Are Predicting Political Violence
a Trendency feature
As has been well documented, Americans, and Congress have become more polarized and self-selecting in who they spend time with and live near, choosing to live in proximity to people with similar political views as themselves. However, studies show that while politicians have become more ideologically polarized, Americans themselves are more “emotionally polarized,” where there is actually policy overlap but a dislike for the other side. Our recent look at this topic among our national panel of American adults agrees with these studies and shows that Americans are more likely to now see supporters of the other political party as “unreasonable people” who just “want to control how people live their lives” rather than as people with a differing viewpoint.
Not surprisingly this leads to many consequences when it comes to the outcome of the November election. As we saw on January 6, 2021 we are no longer living in a time where the peaceful transfer of power is the norm. While we unfortunately do not have decades worth of data of our own to compare to, the previous studies show that the idea of horrific consequences for the country is a relatively new phenomenon. Animosity towards people of different political views is not new, but acting on those beliefs tended to be more regional and local than national throughout most of the 1900’s. As we move deeper into the 21st century the outlook is certainly more turbulent and Americans have an expectation that the period after this November’s election is not likely to be one of peace and tranquility. Our results indicate that Americans now explicitly predict violence, to varying degrees, following the 2024 presidential election.
“Those People” …
When it comes to those that are voting for a different candidate, on average, Americans think a majority of the supporters of the other presidential candidate are “unreasonable people who want to control how we live our lives.” By contrast, Americans, on average, say that, 46.6 percent of the other candidate’s supporters are “people who just have a different viewpoint than I do”. For this question, our panelists were asked to indicate what percentage of the other candidate’s voters were in each category with the two responses adding up to 100 percent.
Results from our National Panel
This trend is led largely by Boomers, although all but one generation tends to view the other side as unreasonable people who want to control their lives. Millennials are most likely to see the other side in a more positive light. Millennials, on average, say 52.1 percent of the other side’s voters are just people who have a different viewpoint, the highest of any demographic. Regardless of who they supported in 2020, Millennials think most of the other candidate’s supporters just have a different viewpoint. That is not to say everything is copacetic in Millennials’ perspective, they still think 47.9 percent of the other side’s supporters are unreasonable people.
On the positive side, if we look at the distribution of responses, only 7 percent of Americans view 100 percent of supporters of the other party as unreasonable people (although 23 percent view 75 percent or more of the supporters as unreasonable people). The smallest concentration, sadly, is the view that 25 percent or less of the other party’s supporters are unreasonable people who want to control our lives.