Tricky Polling & Campaign Contributions Explaining U.S. Response to Israel
A quick look at polling and campaign contributions suggests key players like Biden feel they have wiggle room to take a less rigid approach ... and pressure from certain interests
Publisher’s Riff
When watching most armed conflicts unfold, it is never difficult to acknowledge the overwhelming and gargantuan military advantage one side will clearly have over the other. There’s little tendency, in the history of warfare, to claim that a conflict with an obvious winner is engaged in balanced “tit-for-tat” engagements with their enemy. If a highly trained, highly resourced and well-armed player on the battlefield is, by all accounts, obliterating the other side, the vast majority of observers can comfortably point to the victor.
However, that’s not how the conversation is evolving in the popular media breakdown of renewed conflict between the Israeli military and Hamas para-military in the Middle East. Clearly, in terms of pure military strength on paper, absorbed casualties and capabilities, the Israeli Defense Forces are the clear winner - but, it’s still really awkward and strained for most media outlets to outright call that. The IDF, indeed, wants the world to embrace it as something of an underdog in this latest episode of an endless, ongoing saga in that region - yet, it spends over 5 percent of its GDP on military expenditures (the U.S. spends over 3 percent), it has its own home-grown battle tank (among other advanced weapons in its arsenal) and it is, on paper, among the elite and best-trained militaries on the planet.
Even with casualties in the Hamas-controlled Gaza far outnumbering casualties on the Israeli side, it’s never a simple numbers game with this region. Part of the reason that’s complicated is because of branding and politics: 1) Israel is in a complicated regional community of neighbors that do not like it, with a few who would not hesitate to irreperably harm it; 2) a few of those neighbors aren’t as skilled as others or as Israel in the public relations game and, thus, gaining public support (with stereotypes and popular media imagery being unhelpful); 3) the neighbor economies are not as developed and advanced as Israel’s; and 4) a much more complex reason is that much of the popular discourse on the topic of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can’t divorce the very insiduous threat and history of anti-Semitism from the other uncomfortable topic of Israeli government and military treatment of non-combatant Palestinians. That last one is just tough to do.
We’ve entered this really peculiar and unprecedented zone where public opinion is shifting in a completely new direction against Israeli military actions - there is very real and very vocal opposition to Israeli actions and those calling it out aren’t feeling afraid to do it. The larger public finds itself much more comfortable pointing out the military imbalance and what’s perceived as Israeli government-imposed apartheid on Palestinians, Israeli Arabs and other minority groups (current and legally embattled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netayanhu is world reviled, so that’s not helping). Even as that’s happening, it’s still really hard for media and policymakers in the U.S., Israel’s largest military, economic and cultural partner, to acknowledge basic facts on the ground, opting instead to “both-sides” it. The reasons for that are also complicated, polling and campaign contributions among them …
Polling
The polling on U.S., and particularly Biden administration, response to the unfolding situation is mixed. The latest Hill-HarrisX poll gives President Biden and Democrats a decent amount of political wiggle room on this …
Fifty-six percent of registered voters in the May 14-15 survey said they approve of Biden's handling of the recent outbreak of violence between the two countries. By contrast, 44 percent said of respondents said they disapprove.
Roughly eight in 10 Democratic voters approve of Biden's handling of the situation, along with 69 percent of independents. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans said they disapprove of Biden on the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Contrary to some of the public discussion, the Hill-HarrisX poll shows that younger, more college educated, a little more affluent, Black and Latino and Democratic voters, along with more Independents, approve of Biden’s management of the situation. That seems a bit counter-intuitive given the coverage of protests. Either this is a purely partisan reflex or it’s, simply, groups that aren’t as worried about the situation in the Middle East as they are about their own job and health benefits prospects at home. Or, it’s a bad poll (there are many of them these days).
In contrast, the recent YouGov poll shows, on the topline, a different story … at least in terms of Biden. Overall, Biden’s management of the situation is not faring so well. Yet, more Americans sympathize with the Israeli government on this, maybe explaining why the president is taking his time getting to the solution part …
Campaign Contributions
Still, one other aspect to this conversation that popular media is failing to cover is the influence of pro-Israel advocacy groups on Capitol Hill and in the White House. This may also explain the still timid response - until recently - from the president and also from Congressional leaders, particularly Democrats. The Republican alignment with hardline pro-Israel stances is not surprising; but, we point to Democrats since progressives are greatly displeased. Those relationships should be closely examined, explains the Center for Responsive Politics at OpenSecrets.org …
One of, if not the most, powerful international issue lobby is that of the pro-Israel crowd. Well-financed and politically powerful, the pro-Israel lobby is a major force on American foreign affairs that looks to continue America's military and fiscal support of the Jewish nation-state. The lobby has had recent policy success with the Trump administration moving the U.S. embassy in Israel from the internationally-recognized capital of Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a move long advocated by some in the pro-Israel lobby.
Closer inspection shows President Biden receiving the most support from pro-Israel groups in 2020, about $3.2 million, making it to the top of that list. Notably, all of the candidates - both Democrat and Republican - in the recent Georgia U.S. Senate battles were among the Top 10 pro-Israel recipients …
This might begin explaining the stances of many elected officials on what’s transpiring.