The March Uptick In Black Unemployment That No One's Talking About
Cunningham | Creative Investment Research
The March 2025 uptick in Black unemployment raises significant concerns, particularly in light of substantial job cuts within the government sector. Our analysis shows two things …
Research suggests these layoffs have disproportionately affected Black workers, exacerbating existing economic disparities.
In light of the decline in Black unemployment, the report of an additional 225,000 jobs being added is suspect.
In March 2025, the unemployment rate for Black workers increased to 6.2%, up from 6.0% in February. This results in an increase of approximately 44,392 individuals from February to March 2025. The rise aligns with projections made last month by Creative Investment Research, which anticipated that Black Americans would lose approximately 78,000 jobs between January and February, primarily due to reductions in government employment. As Black Enterprise recently reported …
[William] Cunningham at Creative Investment Research said his firm’s 0.4 percentage point increase from January reflects government job reductions and weaker hiring in sectors that disproportionately employ Black workers. The U.S. government began firing thousands of people at numerous agencies nationwide in recent weeks as President Donald Trump and his ally Elon Musk cut federal government spending extensively.
Cunningham expects the overall unemployment rate to rise to 4.2% in February from 4.0% in January. He expects the change to slow hiring, growing layoffs, and weakened economic activity.
The federal government's layoffs have had a pronounced impact on Black employees, who have historically found stable, middle-class careers in public sector roles. For instance, the United States Postal Service (USPS), where Black workers constitute 29% of the workforce, faces potential privatization efforts that could further jeopardize these positions.
Tariff Impacts On Black & Minority-Owned Businesses
Also: the Trump administration’s recent tariff surge is deepening the economic pain for Black and minority-owned businesses.
In February 2025, Trump announced tariffs targeting imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, claiming to bolster domestic manufacturing and address trade imbalances. These tariffs included a 25 percent duty on goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10 percent duty on Chinese imports.
Such measures were projected to significantly impact Black and minority-owned businesses, which often rely on cost-effective supply chains and imported goods. As Creative Investment Research noted in its last recent analysis …
The impact of Trump's proposed tariffs on Black and minority-owned businesses could be significant and largely negative, given their reliance on cost-effective supply chains, imported goods, and price-sensitive consumers.
Since then, the administration has expanded its tariff strategy. On April 2, 2025, Trump declared "Liberation Day," introducing a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries. For instance, imports from China now face a 34 percent tariff, while those from the European Union are subject to a 20 percent tariff. These tariffs took effect on April 5, 2025.
The implications for Black and Minority-Owned Businesses include …
Escalating Operational Costs: Broader Range of Affected Goods: The expanded tariffs now encompass a wider array of products, including electronics, apparel, and machinery. Minority-owned businesses that depend on these imports will likely experience increased procurement costs.
Supply Chain Disruptions: The imposition of higher tariffs on multiple countries may lead to delays and increased expenses in supply chains, affecting inventory management and delivery schedules.
Intensified Inflationary Pressures: Consumer Price Increases: As businesses pass on higher costs to consumers, price-sensitive customers in minority communities may reduce spending, impacting sales and profitability.
Energy and Transportation Costs: Tariffs on imported energy sources and automotive parts can lead to higher utility and transportation expenses, further straining business operations.
Challenges in Accessing Capital: Rising Interest Rates: Inflation concerns may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, making borrowing more expensive for minority entrepreneurs seeking to finance operations or expansion.
Investor Uncertainty: The unpredictable trade environment may deter investors, limiting funding opportunities for minority-owned businesses.
Limited Capacity to Adapt: Transitioning Suppliers: Shifting to domestic suppliers or alternative international sources may be challenging due to existing relationships, quality considerations, and cost implications.
Absorbing Additional Costs: Smaller businesses often lack the financial buffers to absorb increased costs, making them more vulnerable to profit margin erosion.
Conclusion …
Recent workforce developments underscore the vulnerability of Black workers in sectors susceptible to policy shifts and budgetary cuts. The surge in Black unemployment highlights the need for targeted interventions to support affected individuals and address systemic inequities in employment.
In addition, the recent escalation in tariff policies under the Trump administration poses substantial challenges for Black and minority-owned businesses. The broad scope of these tariffs exacerbates operational costs, supply chain complexities, and financial pressures. Without targeted support or policy interventions, these enterprises may face heightened risks, potentially leading to business closures and job losses within minority communities.
WILLIAM CUNNINGHAM is Founder/CEO of Creative Investment Research, a minority-owned business that builds success for other minority entrepreneurs. The firm researches and creates ESG & Impact Investments
