The (Ignored) National Security Threats Posed by Climate Crisis
Izquierdo | a Learn4Life CLMI feature
We know the threats climate crisis pose to our planet, our lives and the far-reaching consequences in terms of destructive impacts on everything from our infrastructure, public health and food security. But what’s missed in much of the public conversation on climate crisis is how it has already brewed into a major national and international security threat. Ongoing headline conflicts in locations like Ukraine and Gaza - as well as not-so-highlighted, but important crisese spiking in Sudan, Congo, Haiti and elsewhere - are not only precipitated by decades or centuries long poitical and cultural tensions, but they’re also provoked by or worsening a rapidly shifting environment damaged by fossil fuels. They all carry a climate crisis component. Scientists widely agree that human activities, such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation, are contributing to the warming of the Earth's atmosphere. This warming, in turn, leads to changes in our climate system and triggers a cascade of interconnected geopolitical effects.
That threat landscape of climate change is complex and multifaceted. Rising global temperatures have resulted in more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires. These events can lead to devastating consequences, including loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, and displacement of populations. Additionally, climate change exacerbates existing security challenges, such as resource scarcity, migration, and conflicts over access to water, food, and energy.
From a U.S. government and geopolitical perspective, there is growing recognition of the national security risks posed by climate change. The previous Trump administration’s National Security Strategy issued in 2017 dismissed climate crisis as an urgent issue and instead prioritized the security and dominance of the fossil fuel industry causing it (downplaying clean energy and renewables) …
Climate policies will continue to shape the global energy system. U.S. leadership is indispensable to countering an anti-growth energy agenda that is detrimental to U.S. economic and energy security interests. Given future global energy demand, much of the developing world will require fossil fuels, as well as other forms of energy, to power their economies and lift their people out of poverty.
However, the current Biden administration not only prioritizes climate crisis in its National Security Strategy, but it makes great effort towards centering it ….
Of all of the shared problems we face, climate change is the greatest and potentially existential for all nations. Without immediate global action during this crucial decade, global temperatures will cross the critical warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius after which scientists have warned some of the most catastrophic climate impacts will be irreversible. Climate effects and humanitarian emergencies will only worsen in the years ahead - from more powerful wildfires and hurricanes in the United States to flooding in Europe, rising sea levels in Oceania, water scarcity in the Middle East, melting ice in the Arctic, and drought and deadly temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa. Tensions will further intensify as countries compete for resources and energy advantage - increasing humanitarian need, food insecurity and health threats, as well as the potential for instability, conflict, and mass migration. The necessity to protect forests globally, electrify the transportation sector, redirect financial flows and create an energy revolution to head off the climate crisis is reinforced by the geopolitical imperative to reduce our collective dependence on states like Russia that seek to weaponize energy for coercion.
Other policy imperatives, as well, are acknowledge the importance of addressing climate change as a threat to national security. The U.S. military, in particular, has recognized the need to adapt to the changing climate and its potential impacts on military operations and infrastructure. One of the key initiatives in this area is the Climate and Security Advisory Group (CSAG), which provides recommendations to the US government on addressing climate change's security risks. The CSAG brings together experts from various fields - including national security, climate science, and policy - to assess the potential impacts of climate crisis on security and propose strategies for mitigation and adaptation.
However, some experts argue that the current government's perspective on climate change's security risks might not fully capture the extent of the problem. They believe that the focus on direct physical impacts, such as rising sea levels and extreme weather events, overlooks the indirect consequences that can have significant security implications. Additionally, relying on historical data might underestimate the future risks posed by climate crisis. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of climate crisis' security risks, it is important to consider a wide range of factors and potential scenarios. This includes exploring the impacts of changing agricultural patterns, food insecurity, and climate-induced migration on regional stability. It also involves integrating climate change considerations into national security planning and decision-making processes to ensure a proactive and effective response.
It’s also critical to understand that climate and ecological disaster deteriorates as a direct result of war and asymmetrical conflict. Nuclear conflict creates a situation of total environmental destruction. We typically and naturally think of the human toll from conflict, but that toll is indirectly shaped by environmental disaster and degradation. The Conflict and Environment Observatory recently studied the impacts, for example, of the Ukraine-Russia War on global greenhouse emissions.
Because one of the actors in the war, Russia, is a major fossil fuel producer which the rest of Europe has long relied on, the conflict, as CNN reports, has also upended efforts at needed global cooperation on climate cooperation. The conflict’s emissions have “… also produced … nearly 27 million gas-powered cars on the road for a year.” And as the Conflict and Environment Observatory reported in its 2023 Estimating the Military’s Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions, “[i]f the world’s militaries were a country, it would have the fourth highest carbon footprint” …
Climate crisis is not only a future problem, it's happening right now and impacting us in various ways. Defense and intelligence leaders in the U.S. are recognizing this threat and taking it seriously - so should we. One major way climate change affects national security is through its impact on global stability. Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and changing climate patterns can lead to resource scarcity, displacement of populations, and conflicts over land and water. These issues can destabilize regions and create tensions between nations.
Another important aspect is military readiness. Climate change can directly affect military operations and infrastructure. For example, rising temperatures can impact the performance of equipment and personnel. Additionally, extreme weather events can damage military bases and disrupt training exercises. Humanitarian crises are also worsened by climate change, which can strain resources and create mass migrations. This can lead to increased apprehension between rivals and bordering nations, along with potential conflicts in regions dealing with the influx of displaced populations. Furthermore, the risk of war can be heightened due to climate change. Competition for resources like water and arable land can escalate into conflicts between nations. In some cases, climate-related disasters can also create power vacuums or intensify existing conflicts, leading to increased instability and the potential for violence. These are simply just a few of the examples of how climate change impacts national security. We might want to pay closer attention to it than we are.
DARLA IZQUIERDO is a Fellow at Learn4Life’s Civic Literacy and Media Influence Institute.