Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Has Everything to Do With White Nationalism & Climate Crisis
There's no bold alliance that, at the moment, is stopping Putin. But, there are essential counters President Biden (& Democrats) should deploy at home
Publisher’s Riff
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is happening with impunity, there is no bold alliance or league of nations - such as NATO - really stopping Russian president Vladimir Putin's aggressive dismantling of what was already a shaky world order. Four key variables prevent a stronger push back from “the West”:
Fossil fuels
Putin's unpredictability and volatile mental state (as reported in The Guardian)
Political upheaval and destabilization in countries like the U.S. and elsewhere that are dealing with the fast re-emergence of white nationalism (some of it supported by the Russian government, particularly in the digital space), and …
... the elephant in the room: Nuclear weapons. Putin has signaled he’s willing to use them.
If the U.S. and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies are unwilling to clash with Russian forces on the battlefield - over fear Putin will activate tactical nukes (which he has suggested he will use depending on the extent of NATO force intervention) - then how exactly do they? Right now, simply flexing through posturing and high alerts is probably not doing anything to dissuade Putin. Ongoing shuttle diplomacy is always useful and needed, Western allies and others should continue with that relentlessly where they can. But, NATO, with the U.S. taking the lead, needs better counters. Many of those counters are geopolitical in nature, or require the usual foreign policy approaches. But, there are also some counters that are not so obvious, yet very effective. Some are rather short term, others more long term, but in serious need of immediate implementation. And, perhaps surprisingly to some folks, some of these counters are actually domestic in nature.
Politics at Home
First: it's important to note that we are in a very pivotal 2022 election cycle. Conventional wisdom, and Republicans especially, might argue that voters aren't really paying that close attention to events in Ukraine for them to really matter; yet, those same observers will then mention the "disaster" withdrawal of U.S. troops in Afghanistan (which, honestly, we’re going to keep arguing wasn't really a disaster, just clumsy at most; Biden ended a 20-year war that got needless and expensive, he said he would, and he oversaw the rapid an relatively successful evacuation of 120,000 civilians in less than a week while surrounded by enemy forces - that doesn't sound like a failure. That's Dunkirk-level). The Biden White House, along with Congressional Democrats, need to then look solid on this and have a clear reason they're opposed to a Russian invasion, help Americans understand why this is - potentially - the most alarming disruption of the "world order" since Hitler invaded Poland in 1939, and why we should be concerned enough to, at least, use necessary tools to thwart further movement into Ukraine.
Doing so requires great, but very necessary messaging lifts from Biden with unified support from Democrats. Democrats should not be, in a moment like this, distancing themselves from Biden - a skilled foreign policy expert himself - during the 2022 elections nor should some be planning upcoming “State of the Union responses” as Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) plans next Tuesday (at this stage, she should cancel it).
Democrats can't further allow any more distortions of the Biden administration's response as "a failure" and should be more forceful in crystallizing what they're doing. Biden's transparency play (the eager disclosure of sensitive intelligence on every Russian move) is tactically cute for a moment, but it doesn't present a broader counter strategy. It's also not formulating a clear agenda that the American public can understand and, possibly, embrace - it's not telegraphing, at all, to the American public why we need to deploy aggressive counter measures to Russia, whether that’s economic, diplomatic or military.
Disqualifying Republicans
Republicans, led by Reagan in the 1980s, were very successful in framing the former Soviet Union as the "Evil Empire." Today, led by the leader of their party, Trump, they are, stunningly, embracing Putin as “smart” and “genius” and as a preferred global leadership model.
There is, first, no reason why Democrats, under Biden can't use elements of the Reagan playbook in defining totalitarian post-Soviet Russia as “evil”. Biden and Democrats should make it plain to the American public that, while there are no plans to put U.S. troops on the ground into Ukraine, it is is necessary to understand that 1) Russian's invasion of Ukraine is not just confined to Ukraine; If Putin can get away with doing it in Ukraine, what's stopping him from doing it elsewhere? And, 2) Russian nationalism represents and is supportive of anti-democratic and anti-multicultural white nationalism.
Since we've known for quite some time that Russia is disrupting American elections, American social media and public discourse and actively manipulating and buying off American politicians and special interests (all the way up to an American president), we should understand that Russia is supporting the same interests that staged the January 6th coup and have been actively destabilizing the United States since before then. Why would we want that destabilization to happen?
There are numerous issues that Russia's imperialist move into Ukraine intersects with. It's high time for the Biden administration to highlight those in a bid to not only counter Putin geopolitically, but to also counter his espionage and manipulation activities in the U.S. through support of white domestic terror networks and other chaos agents. There should be daily conversation about how deeply aligned the Kremlin is with armed white nationalist organizations. Every move should be made to now treat those organizations (and their surrogates) as extensions of a geopolitical threat. Accelerating the prosecution of 1.6 coup planners and participants should be priority, along with disqualifying elected officials from ballot for their participation in January 6th. Federal law enforcement agencies should immediately disarm white nationalist "hate groups,” essential steps in that countering effort.
If the Biden Administration acts strategically, they can also neutralize some of the support the Russo-Republican coalition is garnering for Russia. While Trump and the Right wing media are openly praising Russia for their “genius” and “strength,” they are still firmly opposed to China. Numerous polls, including those from Pew Research and the Brookings Institution, have found that Republicans have a more negative view of China than Democrats do, while views on our political and economic relationship with the communist party has tanked on both sides of the political spectrum.
The United States is not coming up against Russia alone. And Russia isn’t functioning as an isolated actor either. China and nations in the Middle East are not only diplomatically supporting Putin, but they are and will continue to provide the funding and resources necessary to sustain their military efforts in the face of Western Sanctions. By broadening the narrative to include roles of China and the Middle East, the Democrats can tie support for Russia with support for China and retake the offensive in the media. This must be done carefully with measures to ensure that an understanding of international relations doesn’t turn into an excuse for an increase in hate crimes. Still: we must be clear that
Russia isn’t working alone
China and Middle Eastern authoritarians are working with them and
If you think that giving a jug of milk to a single mother is promoting socialism, then you should know that handing Europe over to Russia and China is ensuring totalitarian communism.
Russian Imperialism is Anti-Blackness … & Everything BIPOC
Meanwhile, Biden can bolster public support for these moves by explaining and showing how these interests are not only aligned with Russia, but are also part of a resurgent white nationalist movement that has increased violence against the American government and Black, Brown and Indigenous communities. If Russia successfully invades Ukraine and then re-asserts itself throughout all of Eastern Europe, that’s a big win for white nationalist movements. As NYU Law’s Just Security project notes …
To degrade existing links between Western extremists and Russian actors, and prevent the further formation of these connections, the United States and its partners must bolster their diplomatic capacity to confront this threat on a global scale. Here, we assess the current nexus between Western right-wing extremists and Russian actors at the state and non-state level. To be clear, we do not have a complete picture of these connections. Further work—from investigative reporting to intelligence sharing—is necessary to discern the scale of links between Western extremists and Russian actors. The counterterrorism community, however, must proactively work to understand this threat to prevent its further growth.
By allowing violent, globally minded paramilitarism to take hold within Russia’s borders, the Kremlin facilitates the growth of right-wing extremism in Europe and the United States that exacerbates threats to the stability of democratic governments
Democrats should be pitching this message and aligning it with other efforts to promote and secure key policy items such as voting rights, the fight against racist gerrymandering and the attacks on the 13th, 14th and 15th Amendments. Don’t go soft on this: there’s an opening to paint the same Republicans who are destroying voting rights, banning books and deleting Black-Indigenous-Brown history as agents for the global white nationalism that is being pushed by Russia. Russia is, unapologetically, anti-Democratic and so are Republicans-Confederates who’s sole obsession is to destroy voting rights and stage coups against the legitimate government of the United States. If mainstream or corporate American media won’t report on this then it is time for Black and other BIPOC-aligned community media outlets to explore, investigate and report on the linkages between Putin’s Russia and domestic hate groups and the vast ecosystem of Republican activists, politicians and surrogates who are, as we speak, actively hyping Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
In addition, the Biden administration - perhaps in conjunction with political allies such as the Congressional Black Caucus - should be fast engaged in exploring and securing comprehensive trade deals with Black Diaspora nations in Africa, the Caribbean and Latin America. This would be a great way to outmaneuver both Russian and China (who may now be considering a move against Taiwan) and to put a squeeze on their expanding spheres of influence. This would also help the U.S. essentially put limits on Russia and China’s growing global military networks. Doing so, however, would require being sensitive to concerns of revived colonialism; but, if these trade deals are done smartly and in such a way that completely respects Black Diaspora sovereignty.
Fossil Fuels Are A Global Security Threat
Lastly: see, this is why we keep telling people it’s time to end our reliance on fossil fuels.
The lack of unified NATO response to Russia's incursions into Ukraine since 2014 also offers us more evidence of how fossil fuels are not only a climate threat, but they are a national security threat, too. Roughly 40 percent of Europe's oil and gas supplies come from Russia, a massive and very influential petrol state that has expressed absolutely no interest in stopping climate crisis. Europe's tepid response to Russia is rooted in fear that Putin is very capable of cutting off crucial energy supplies. Already, global gas prices are sharply rising and could hit $120/barrel; analysts warn that prices at the pump could reach $7/gallon. Increased oil prices trigger more inflation - rising consumer prices - which can further trigger recession.
Back home in the United States, we're also seeing how stress from rising gas prices and inflation are driving voter sentiments that are not favorable to Democrats in this 2022 election cycle. Who really wants pro-Putin, pro-white nationalist Republicans who staged a coup just a year ago retaking Congress and impeaching President Biden in 2023?
Beyond the messaging around Russia as a geopolitical white nationalist threat that is intent on further destabilizing the U.S., Biden and Democrats should transform this moment into a reboot of the nation’s clean energy agenda. It’s very simple: “See, it’s oil and gas that causes unnecessary wars - have you ever seen solar, wind or hydro-power start a war?”
We need to frame Russia's Ukraine invasion as a major climate and energy crisis that creates an array of easily preventable national security threats. This could be a fresh start for Build Back Better, or the clean energy and climate mitigation provisions contained within. It might also be smart to immediately move against and ban any Russian petrol state operations in the United States. This could be a moment where Biden and Democrats can easily say "if we weren't so reliant on fossil fuels and were a clean energy powered nation to begin with, and Europe were the same, Russia wouldn't even have the power to invade or disrupt anyone in the first place." It's important to tie this invasion to the climate threat, to frame fossil fuels as a national security threat since Russia is using oil and gas as a sinister leveraging tool against vulnerable neighbors. In reality, the Ukraine crisis presents an opportunity for a clean energy revival. The clean energy sector should have already jumped on this opportunity, yesterday.