Quick Post-Iowa Thoughts on the State of the 2024 Race
Mainstream media narratives will want to feed everyone the impression of a highly competitive presidential race. But, it will be essential to sift carefully through the noise.
Ellison | Publisher’s Riff
With the Republican Iowa primary caucuses now having come to a close, mainstream media will predictably feed the public the narrative of Trump being a political force of nature. That’s expected: media companies need eyeballs and revenue. Even with democracy and the fate of the world on the line, given the geopolitical and climate repercussions of a Trump win, the 2024 race must stay close and as competitive as possible at all costs. That’s the business model. From the prioritization of a constant polling stream that shows Trump edging President Biden by a knuckle or few of percentage points (even when other polls show Biden edging Trump) to obsessive reporting on Trump’s cult-like hold on the Republican electorate, media needs the drama from start to finish.
Which is why it’s important to understand those dynamics and make sure to delve more deeply into the numbers when and where we can. According to the Iowa Secretary of State, there are a total of nearly 2.2 million active and inactive voters in that state, with nearly 671,000 Democratic voters and over 748,000 Republican voters. Here are the results from Monday’s Republican Iowa caucus results …
Only a little over 110,000 Republican voters showed up, or just under 15 percent of the Republican Iowa electorate. Only 7.5 percent of that electorate voted for Trump. We should also add that 110,000 Republican voters represent just 5 percent of all registered voters in Iowa.
Yes, there was a blizzard battering Iowa this week. But, it shouldn’t go unnoticed that only 5 percent of that state’s voters picked the presumed presidential nominee of the Republican party. Does this say anything about Trump’s political strength … or not? Or, does it just tell us that the Iowa caucus is not as significant as it once was?
Here’s CBS News on how this caucus compared to previous turnouts …
In 2016, Republicans set a new record for turnout at the caucuses, with almost 187,000 GOP voters. Though the total made up only about a third of all registered Republicans, turnout at the 2016 caucuses greatly outnumbered the 2012 contest, which had about 122,000 voters. And in 2008, the turnout was similar, with 120,000 voters, making the 2024 Iowa caucuses turnout the lowest in more than a decade.
Biden v. Trump Matchup
According to the YouGov/Economist national polling, here’s where the hypothetical match-up stands at the moment …
There are enough “others,” “not sures” and “I would not votes” - a combined 13 percent of the electorate - that should worry Biden. Having 18 percent of Black voters going for Trump (just 12 percent voted for Trump in 2020), along with 31 percent of Hispanic voters, is not a good feeling either. But, encouragingly, he still edges Trump by a percentage point overall. There are actually fewer White voters for Trump in the trial heat (50 percent) than the final results in 2020 (58 percent). Still, Biden is lagging in quite a few areas here and struggling where he shouldn’t. Given the political monstrosity, national security threat and criminal enterprise Trump is, it shouldn’t be this close.
But this same polls shows a majority of voters not wanting Trump to run in 2024 and not favoring his politics, so there’s quite a bit of confusion and incongruity in the electorate …
Still, more people, at the moment, aren’t feeling a Biden run either compared to Trump. That’s troubling …
CHARLES D. ELLISON is Publisher of theBEnote and Principal of B|E Strategy.