One Thing Holding Democrats Back on Minimum Wage
A quick - but deeper - look at recent polling suggests racism, yet again, torpedoes what was perceived as sensible public policy. But, it was never that simple, was it?
Publisher’s Riff
Democrats can’t seem to get an increase in the federal minimum wage passed. Frustrated supporters of a minimum wage hike are grumbling “well, what exactly will it take?” Senate Democrats aren’t showing an appetite for a fight on the matter, as the Senate Parliamentarian rejects putting the provision in the larger $1.9 trillion emergency pandemic relief plan and, reportedly, Democrats are retreating from their “Plan B” proposal to pass it as a tax incentive stick and carrot. Reports The Washington Post …
Senior Democrats are abandoning a backup plan to increase the minimum wage through a corporate tax penalty, after encountering numerous practical and political challenges in drafting their proposal over the weekend, according to two people familiar with the internal deliberations.
On Thursday, the Senate parliamentarian said that the $15-an-hour minimum wage included in President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan was inadmissible under the rules Democrats are using to pass the bill through the Senate.
After that decision, Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Senate Budget Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said they would instead seek to add tax penalties on large corporations that fail to pay $15 an hour — an idea viewed as less likely to be struck down by the parliamentarian and still helpful to some minimum-wage workers.
But now senior Democrats — including Wyden and Sanders — are walking away from that backup effort, according to two people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share internal discussions.
Progressives, of course, are demanding a number of counter measures - from firing the Parliamentarian (just like Republicans did in 2001 when there was a tied Senate and they couldn’t get their way on tax cuts) or having the Vice President overrule the Parliamentarian (just like Democrat Vice President Hubert Humphrey did repeatedly at the prodding of President Lyndon B. Johnson and liberal Republican Vice President Nelson Rockefeller did in 1975). Still, overruling the parliamentarian in a bid to push the minimum wage hike through the simple 50+1 majority reconciliation vote only works if all Senate Democrats are on board. The problem with that, however, is neither conservative Democrats Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) are feeling the minimum wage hike.
The corporate tax penalty showed some promise. But, absent that, Democratic leaders could have decided on a full court press messaging tour to increase public support for a minimum wage hike, thereby placing pressure on Manchin and Sineman, along with a few “moderate” Republicans.
Minimum wage supporters assume there is a solid, impenetrable wall of public support for the bill, especially when we see topline numbers like these from Reuters/Ipsos …
A majority of Americans support the idea of more than doubling the minimum wage to $15 per hour, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed on Thursday as Senate Democrats await a ruling on whether they can tuck that measure into a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill.
Regardless of the ruling, the idea of raising the minimum wage to $15 by 2025 from its current $7.25 is broadly popular, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. Some 59% of respondents said they supported the idea, with 34% opposing it.
When told that “raising the minimum wage should lift some families out of poverty, but government economists also expect it could eliminate some low income jobs, potentially making some families worse off,” 55% of respondents said they supported it.
About 40% of American adults said that they would benefit – either personally or through a member of their family – if the U.S. raised the federal minimum wage.
We can’t see further crosstab information on how specific demographics or groups of voters in the Reuters/Ipsos poll stand on the subject. But, we do notice two things: 1) the number of respondents opposing the minimum wage about matches the percentage of voters who would defintely vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate in 2022, as YouGov shows ….
… and 2) support for the minimum wage increase dropped 4 points when it was explained that it could, potentially, lift families out of poverty.
At this stage, we should view the minimum wage debate through the lens of race … and, really, racism. It could start, first, with the general impression of who the minimum wage hike benefits. Recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data show 3 percent of all Black workers earn the federal minimum wage or less versus 2 percent of all White workers - but, in terms of pure numbers, Whites constitute 78 percent of the overall workforce.
Still, raising the federal minimum wage would benefit Black and Brown low-income workers the most, as the Economic Policy Institute shows …
Raising the minimum wage to $15 will be particularly significant for workers of color and would help narrow the racial pay gap.
Nearly one-third (31%) of African Americans and one-quarter (26%) of Latinos would get a raise if the federal minimum wage were increased to $15.66. See also Laura Huizar and Tsedeye Gebreselassie, What a $15 Minimum Wage Means for Women and Workers of Color, National Employment Law Project, December 2016.
Almost one in four (23%) of those who would benefit is a Black or Latina woman.
African Americans and Latinos are paid 10%–15% less than white workers with the same characteristics, so The Raise the Wage Act will deliver the largest benefits to Black and Latino workers: about $3,500 annually for a year-round worker.
Minimum wage increases in the 1960s Civil Rights Era significantly reduced Black–white earnings inequality and are responsible for more than 20% of the overall reduction in later years.
That’s where perception challenges arise in the political debate: anything viewed as bringing Black and Brown workers closer to economic parity with White workers is problematic. Suddenly, a minimum wage hike is not as appealing, particularly when the Congressional Budget Office calculates a loss of “1 million jobs” … although the jobs lost would be mostly low-income. What we see in recent YouGov polling, which shows the racial breakdown, is more resistance to a minimum wage increase from White voters - even though, once again, the majority of workers benefiting from a federal minimum wage hike would be White workers …
We see stronger opposition from most White men and nominal opposition from White women to a minimum wage increase, compared to greater support from Black and Latino voters. Black voter support for a wage hike is the largest of all demographic groups. Democratic Party leadership, still desperate to convert “White working class” and Trump voters (out of discomfort that their party is, through sickness and through health, a Black and Brown party), seem loathe to attract any more “Whitelash” against public policy that economically benefits Black and Brown populations (especially “migrants”). Racial differences are just one aspect of what’s troubling the minimum wage hike debate, there are other factors. But, it is a very important aspect worth considering as supporters struggle to understand why Democrats, including the Biden White House, are retreating from the federal minimum wage increase at the moment.