Lincoln Park Strategies: What Are Americans' Views on these Trump Cases?
As the jury in New York deliberated and then found a former President of the United States guilty on all 34 counts it felt like a good time to check in on the American public to get an understanding of who was paying attention to the case, and what they felt about the charges that were brought. While we don’t yet have an idea of what the ramifications of the jury's decision will be, it is interesting to see what the public thinks about the cases Trump faces and what factors predict a person's viewpoint.
According to our data, more than half of Americans (54 percent) report that they were paying some attention to the trial, although less than 1 in 5 (18 percent) say that they were paying very close attention, 36 percent were following the cases somewhat closely. Overall men, and especially men over the age of 65, are the most likely to say they were paying attention (62 percent of men overall and 73 percent of men over 65), while women were less interested in the cases (47 percent of women report that they were paying attention).
Vote choice is another big factor with 69 percent of 2020 Trump voters saying they are paying attention while 2020 Biden voters (65 percent) are slightly less likely to be paying attention, and non-2020 voters (26 percent) are decidedly tuned out.
The biggest difference is among those who were paying very close attention with Trump voters nearly two times more likely to report this level of focus compared to Biden voters (30 percent vs 19 percent) and six times more likely than non-2020 voters.
Among Trump voters who were paying close attention to the cases, most of their news is coming from Fox News, while Biden voters who were paying attention are more split between CNN and MSNBC. Overall, 19 percent of Americans say they turn to Fox News on a regular basis when it comes to issues that are important to them. Among 2020 Trump voters who were paying close attention to the court cases, 44 percent report regularly turning to Fox News, while 16 percent of Biden voters report the same. Among Biden voters who were paying close attention, 41 percent report turning to CNN. It feels safe to assume that these viewing habits are affecting thoughts on the cases (or voters are tuning into the news sources that reinforce their views) as it is unlikely that there is similar coverage and opinions coming from Fox News and CNN.
Regardless of how much attention Americans are paying to the cases, there is a split when it comes to the cases themselves, with Americans feeling slightly over half of the charges against the former President are based on the law (51.8 percent on average) and a little less than half (48.2 percent) of the charges being viewed as political. Just 16 percent of Americans feel that none of the charges are based on the law, while one in five (21 percent) feel that 100 percent of the charges are based on the law. Not shockingly, Trump and Biden voters who are paying attention to the cases have different views on what the cases are based on. Interestingly, 61 percent of Biden voters feel that there is some politics involved, and 57 percent of Trump voters feel that there was at least some level of the charges being based on the law.
Another interesting difference is among Trump voters who also show signs of being open to disinformation. While there is no perfect way to measure openness, if we look at those who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and those who did not receive any of the shots an interesting pattern emerges. While there is little difference on the “based on the law” side of the spectrum, there is a noticeable difference on how much these voters feel the case if mostly or all based on politics. Overall, 41 percent of Trump voters feel it is 100 percent based on politics. Among Trump voters who are fully vaccinated it drops to 30 percent, but is at 53 percent among those who did not get any shots to inoculate against COVID.
As we have seen in other data, disinformation is especially effective among Americans over the age of 65 and especially those who support Trump. Overall, 16 percent of Americans feel that the case is 100 percent political. Among those who are over the age of 65, the number increases to 26 percent. Among 2020 Trump voters, 41 percent feel that the case is 100 percent political. This is clearly a large concentration, but it pales in comparison to Trump voters who are over 65 (66 percent). Among this age group who are unvaccinated, more than eight in ten (85 percent) feel the case is 100 percent about politics.
The likelihood of the case having a big effect on voters seems slim, but given how close this race currently is, a few points in either direction can make a huge difference in the outcome. Currently six percent of 2020 Trump voters feel the case is mostly about the law. If the former President is found guilty on a majority of the charges, will this change their vote in 2024? The same can be asked about the six percent of Biden voters who feel the case is 100 percent political. Would a full acquittal or a majority acquittal move them away from supporting Biden this November?
