Let's Talk About Black Non-Voters
Let's Talk About Black Non-Voters
A brief, & controversial, look at a persistent & pernicious anti-Black trend that's also contributed to eroding Black political empowerment & public policy goals in recent years: Black non-voters
Publisher’s Riff
It was refreshing to see in the most recent Quinnipiac University poll on the U.S. Senate race in Georgia that, finally, current incumbent Senator and Democrat Ralph Warnock struck a comfortable lead over the abomination “coonitics” Republican candidate Herschel Walker by about 6 points.
What was even more relieving is that not only do Black voters in Georgia, at least in this poll, seem resoundingly unified around Warnock as their preferred candidate - favoring Warnock by 85 percentage points over Walker - but none of them are either “undecided” or saying they “wouldn’t vote.” In essence, there were no Black non-voters in this poll. Indeed, there were actually White non-voters identifying themselves in this race.
This is just one poll out of many. But, it appears as an outlier of a rather disturbing and long-ignored trend that we’ve discussed before on theBEnote and elsewhere: the growing prevalence of the Black non-voter. We need to stop ignoring or dismissing that conversation and start figuring out how we can fix it.
Some thoughts …
It’s troubling enough to warrant concern. When YouGov, in it’s weekly Economist poll, asks for a generic Congressional vote sample: Black voters are the most likely, by wide margins and double digits (11 percent), to say they would not vote in November. That’s extremely troubling not only for Democrats - since they are the demographic most ready to vote Democrat - but for the Black community as a whole given the magnitude of the very dangerous anti-Black public policy moment we find ourselves in. What does this mean just less than two months out from November 8th? …
While not the least likely to turnout according to this recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, Black voters still show up significantly (second to Latino voters) among the “don’t know(s),” which typically translates into - especially this close to Election Day - “I’m not being bothered” ….
The most recent national sampling of voters in this end of August Quinnipiac survey shows a similar trend, but with Black voters, ranging from 16-20 percentage points, being the most likely to say they “don’t know” who they would support in upcoming House and Senate elections (which does not bode well for Democrats) …
Black electorate voter turnout, particularly for younger Black voters, consistently lags behind other racial demographic groups. That is a problem, especially as election cycles 1) become much more contentious and, in some cases, tighter and 2) reflect even higher stakes as a much more openly white racist and nationalistic Republican Party that is vehmently opposed to Black interests continues to chip away at voting rights, engage in election subversion and make every effort to dismantle free and fair elections. As NPR reported last year on Census data, the difference between turnout increases among Asian, White and Latino voters since 2008 versus the voter turnout increases for Black voters was dramatic - simply because the Black electorate was the only group that showed a decrease in turnout when comparing 2020 to 2008 …
We see a similar trend here in a more recent joint Voter Participation Center and Center for Voter Information study released in April 2022. Lagging Black voter turnout rates are the most pronounced among Black and Latino Gen-Zers, with Black 18-24 year olds the least likely to turnout in 2018 and 2020 among all racial groups and Black 25-34 year olds just behind Latino voters of the same age. According to this study, Asian American Pacific Islander voters are now the leading non-White demographic in terms of higher voter turnout rates …
Back to the YouGov poll, Black voters are the second most likely to admit - by a combined 28 percent - that they will either “probably” or “definitely” or “don’t know if they” won’t vote in the upcoming 2022 elections. While they are the least likely, on this question, to say they “definitely will not vote” (8 percent) among racial demographic groups, they are the most likely to say they “probably” won’t. Either way, it’s a worrisome picture since the policy stakes are so high for Black communities, which requires every last eligible Black voter being on the field …
There are a variety of factors that explain why Black voters are not on the political field as much as they should be, despite the fact that voting is so supremely consequential for them as a community group. Mainly: it’s a reflection of how much the American political system and policymaking infrastructure has continued to let them down and suppress them.
Secondly: we need to take into consideration what we’ve called, for a while now, the “voter suppression quotient” in modern elections. We need to ramp up investigation into the negative impact that voter suppression laws have had on Black voter turnout. The Center for American Progress explored that in 2016. Recently, the Brennan Center begins to look into that deeply here and also here, explaining how voter suppression laws are giving a disproportionate edge to White voters while either discouraging or outright disenfranchising Black and other non-White voters. Overcounting of Whites and undercounting of non-Whites in the recent 2020 Census (which needs a do-over) doesn’t help …
We should, however, take into account that what ultimately defeats voter suppression and activated white supremacy at the polls is more Black votes. Hence, instances of lagging Black voter enthusiasm and Black voter turnout that is entirely preventable should not be an acceptable outcome. The Democratic Party, which is the only legitimate national political or partisan organization most closely aligned with Black public policy objectives, needs to do a much better job of investing in outreach to and infrastructure for potential Black voters in low-income voting wards and districts (something they continue to neglect).
But, this ultimately comes down to us. Where is our fight for maximum Black voter turnout at all levels during all election cycles? How do we expect substantial political change or realignment if a substantial chunk of us are not on the proverbial football field? We wouldn’t tolerate our favorite football team’s coach removing players from the field, right? So why are we tolerating the removal of critical Black voters from the electoral field? If we’re crystal clear on energetic and well-funded white supremacist and white Republican efforts that have overturned the Voting Rights Act and are hell-bent on destroying our access to the polls and completely undermining our ability to make any policy progress, why in the world would we want to contribute to that in any way by not voting?
We can’t expect political systems to push for us if we’re not relentlessly pushing them; not voting is not the act of political defiance some are characterizing it as - it is actually an act of political suicide. There should be zero-tolerance in Black communities for depressed Black voter or eligible Black voter mood while we are also fighting against voter suppression. Public conversations in Black media or white nationalist-fueled disinformation on social media as to whether the Black vote counts or not are completely unacceptable, unproductive and anti-Black. Civic literacy revival should be a high priority in Black communities, and the Black political and advocacy class should be expanding efforts to ensure far fewer - if any - Black individuals, especially in the younger age brackets, are removing themselves from the political process. Always remember: more Black votes = less white supremacy.