In Search of a Manchin Workaround
Several potential steps for Democrats to reach essential goals by 2022 ... and to quit whining over this dude
Publisher’s Riff
The existence of two rogue Democratic Senators, Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Krysten Sinema (D-AZ), presents an extremely difficult challenge for President Biden. One of those Senators, Manchin, is the most problematic of the two. He has become more visibly Republican-aligned in his manufactured calls for “bipartisanship” as he openly defies his own party’s desperate attempts to craft and pass critical pieces of public policy from voting rights to police reform to infrastructure. After a lifetime of running for president and finally achieving it, Biden now faces the prospect of his bold pandemic-era agenda and political legacy being crushed by one Senator who is fashioning himself into Washington’s most powerful person … while representing a fledgling, population-hemorraghing coal industry state of 1.8 million residents that is just 0.5 percent of the overall U.S. population. Does Biden let this dude just walk all over him? How does Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer stop him?
There are more pressing questions, however, than all of this talk and outrage over Manchin. In fact, the mainstream discourse obsession over the scornful West Virginian is wasted energy that could be used elsewhere. Manchin’s reputation is no new thing, and his position against reforming or eliminating the filibuster has never been a secret (although, he felt the exact opposite just ten years ago). There are, instead, more immediate strategic issues we need to address …
How do Senate Democrats work around the filibuster?
How do Senate Democrats pass voting rights and infrastructure?
How do Democrats win in 2022?
Step 1: Recognition That It’s Unlikely Manchin and Sinema Will Switch Parties
Let's just first establish that it’s unlikely that either Sen. Manchin or Sen. Sinema will switch from Democrat to Republican at this time. This isn’t as simple as Sen. Jim Jeffords (I-VT) situation in 2001 when he flipped from Republican to an Independent caucusing with Democrats, automatically giving them a majority. This keeps coming up as a discussion point, yet it’s safe to argue that it’s not all that realistic.
The public Trump-Qanon riddled Republican brand is just toxic enough to frighten both Senators into worrying about their own personal, political and historical legacy brands. They each gain little from it. In addition, making such a switch could present voter support and fundraising complications for both Senators, particularly the younger and much newer Sinema, considering where they draw a significant bulk of their combined campaign committee and leadership PAC revenue from. A top contributor to Manchin is the West Virginia State Democratic Executive Committee ($100,000 during 2015-2020) and a top contributor to Sinema is EMILY’s List (over $406,000 between in that same time period). While Manchin lives in a state that’s fairly red in political color, he’s pragmatic enough to understand that a future for him in the Republican Party is fraught with uncertainty and a higher likelihood of primary challenges from Trumpists than where he is now in the state’s Democratic Party infrastructure. Sinema might appear eccentric, but she’s smart enough to see her state’s demographics are diverse enough to underscore how much political trouble she’d be in by switching, with a higher likelihood of a major primary challenge from Trumpists were she to switch. Plus, both are independent-minded and “maverick” enough to understand they have a lot more latitude to flex as such in the Democratic Party than in the Republican Party.
Democratic Party leaders could attempt to quietly put pressure on various contributor sources - or check-ins - to ensure a switch doesn’t happen. But, we’re not certain this is something folks should sweat about as much as they do.
Plus: with potential resources and investments for West Virginia from Biden’s infrastructure bill hanging in the balance, Manchin will not risk a party switch that suddenly takes the majority away from the party in control of those resources. He’s not admitting it, but he needs Democratic hold over the Senate as much as Democrats need him to play ball.
Step 2: Tolerate Manchin & Sinema, Reform the Filibuster
So, at this stage, the Senate won’t be able to eliminate the dreaded filibuster. It should, but it won’t: it needs all 50 Democratic Senators to do so, and there are two in the way.
Instead, attempt to reform it. With Democrats currently holding a slim majority in the Senate and newfound public awareness around just how evil the filibuster is putting pressure on players like Biden and Schumer to do something about it, now might present a short window to tweak it. In his recent Washington Post op-ed, Manchin did write that he rejects any attempt to “weaken” the filibuster … but, it’s important to note: he didn’t say that he opposed reforming it, which probably leaves wiggle room open for engagement and negotiation. Reformed doesn’t necessarily translate into weakened.
Reform simply looks like what American Enterprise Institute scholar Norm Ornstein recommended in March: 1) Lower the filibuster-breaking threshold to 55 votes (which is better than the current 60), and 2) put the burden of filibuster debate on those who love using it so much (Republicans) while 3) making sure everyone who is filibustering is present on the Senate floor filibustering. This adjustment also offers an opportunity for the public to see the destructive, anti-democratic power of the filibuster on full display and to help voters understand more clearly how threatening it is. It’s not evident that Manchin (and Sinema) are opposed to such adjustments, and it’s a matter of going along with their bullshit and framing it as a needed reform to achieve the “bipartisanship” and good work of the Senate they each keep claiming they want. Ok, yeah, whatever you say.
Step 3: Pass Voting Rights (H.R. 4) & Infrastructure
Once a filibuster adjustment is made, with promises to the likes of both Manchin and Sinema that’s it’s all for their greater good of “bipartisanship,” it would be time to push for passage of H.R. 4 - not H.R. 1, but H.R. 4 - the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and the Biden administration’s infrastructure proposal. Both can be passed in no particular order, but they should be passed by no later than Fall 2021.
It’s important to refocus attention on re-introducing and passing H.R. 4 (which did pass the House in 2019 and was introduced as S. 4263 in 2020), which entered the Senate before the packed H.R. 1 “elections reform” bill. While H.R. 1 contains some very laudable goals towards not just voting rights, but also campaign finance, mitigating the undue influence of gerrymandering and making election administration more secure, H.R. 1 still contained way too much. Democrats, politically, were biting off way more than their slim Senate majority could chew, thereby increasing its chances of becoming marginalized. However, Manchin - just meeting with civil rights leaders this week - has signaled his support for H.R. 4 which solely focuses on strengthening voting rights and helping recover a Voting Rights Act gutted by the Supreme Court in 2013 (and then it went all down hill). Once the filibuster is reformed, take him up on that offer and achieve the primary mission: restore voting rights. Then use that to quietly find at least four Republicans to break a newly implemented 55 vote filibuster threshold: Could Senators such as Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Susan Collins (R-ME), Ben Sasse (R-NE) and Mitt Romney (R-UT) be persuaded to vote for H.R. 4? Because, without that key foundation, there’s no real hope for anything else.
In addition, we should continue to view Manchin’s positioning on issues like the filibuster and voting rights as part of a larger negotiating game to attract more Biden administration concessions in the infrastructure deal. Senate Democrats should ensure Manchin’s support for Biden’s current infrastructure plan is locked in by offering more sweeteners for West Virginia, including hard investments to help the state transition from coal to clean energy (especially since it lost the most population out of any state in the 2020 Census). Manchin is desperate for points on the board to showcase his work in the Senate; that process has already started, with Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm visiting the state last week and a number of federal grants already announced. The breakdown in negotiations between President Biden and Manchin’s Republican counterpart Sen. Shelley Capito (R-WV) could be more indicative of issues already worked out with Manchin … and Capito’s usefulness running its course as a result. This explains Manchin’s reasoning for openly testing Democrats on reforming the filibuster and voting rights: If they want both that bad, give West Virginia what it wants (and, really, what it needs since it’s a state dying economically and losing population fast).
Step 4: Win in 2022
Once key legislative efforts like voting rights and infrastructure are won, these policy successes - along with better management of pandemic recovery - give Democrats enough political boost to achieve five key electoral objectives in 2022 …
Preserve and, potentially, expand their majority in the U.S. Senate
Preserve and, potentially, expand a shrunkened majority in the U.S. House
Retake lost ground in the states by creating wave elections in state legislative and gubernatorial races
Attempt to dominate judicial elections
Ensure that Republicans do not dominate Secretary of State elections (which would give them a dangerous upper hand to rig and steal the 2024 presidential election)
In order to do all this, it’s advisable for Democrats to consider being focused on an “up-ballot” approach as opposed to the conventional “down-ballot” approach. Place more emphasis on taking back state legislatures. What that means is recognizing state-level elections (as well as local activity, too) are more important and much more strategically valuable that federal elections. The war for voting rights and other key issues such as restoring democratic institutions, police accountability and climate crisis response is really being fought in state capitols more so than in Washington, D.C. Democrats need to capture this moment as a way to energize voter interest in state legislative and Governor’s races and snatch away as much ground from Republicans as possible in 2022.