Getting a Grip on That Disturbance in the Red Sea
Jasmin Bello | a CLMI Fellow
In terms of global conflicts, much attention is given to what’s happening in Ukraine and the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. However, equal scrutiny should be showered on the current conflict in the Red Sea. On October 16, 2023 a militia group and movement known as “Ansar Allah,” also known as the “Houthis” launched a series of attacks toward merchant ships traveling the Red Sea passage. The Houthi leader Abdel Malek Al Houthi announced that their targets are aimed at Israeli-associated ships or shipments arriving in Israeli ports. The timing of this - just less than two weeks after Hamas’ grisly attack on Israeli civilians which left 1,200 dead and sparked the current war and disproportionate response from the Israeli military on the Gaza strip - is significant. In claims of solidarity with the Palestinians, the Houthi attacks and armed harassment of these extremely vital global shipping lanes continue non-stop. They claim they will not stop until Gaza gets the “food and medicine it needs.” Despite claims of only targeting Israeli ships and shipments with relations with the country, the Houthis have been linked to disrupting many commercial vessels from different countries around the world.
Who are the Houthis?
On January 11th, 2024, the United States and the United Kingdom issued forces as retaliatory efforts against a group known as the Houthis due to their assaults on maritime activities in the Red Sea. Both countries have been deploying warships, submarines, and numerous air strikes across Yemen.
The Houthis are a Yemen-based rebel group who dominate northwestern Yemen including the Yemeni population and coastline along the Red Sea. The rebel group is not only backed by Iran (which is clearly a dangerous military rival against the United States), but it’s also provided and funded with cheap military weapons, military training, and financial aid. The Iranian support and political influence have allowed the Houthis to launch various attacks that are escalating the assaults.
Why Should We Care?
The Red Sea's huge volume of global trade, energy, and oil flow makes voyage stability a vital component for many countries globally including the United States. As the World Economic Forum points out …
Red Sea shipping [is] responsible for 12-15 percent of global trade and 20 percent of global container shipping, [and] repercussions are likely to become more severe as uncertainties continue. OECD estimates suggest that a doubling of global shipping costs, if persistent, would add 0.4 percentage points to consumer price inflation in OECD countries after about a year.
We’re already witnessing a number of global shipping transitions and disruptions, as the International Monetary Fund reports, which increases a higher risk of inflation and potential higher consumer prices …
However, so far, the impacts of inflation from Red Sea conflict have been negligible.
But we’re also seeing new forms of warfare being engaged by the Houthis against larger military apparatus deployed by conventional nation states. The halts and disturbances have seen big nations like the United States and Britain to use and deploy expensive weapons to serve as a defense against cheaply manufactured drones and missiles Iran is providing the Houthis. The Houthi attacks and proxy relations with Iran are undoubtedly leaving costly damage. That introduces an imbalance in cost and leaves us to ask who benefits the most. It’s still too early to tell.
The route is defined by two gates, the Suez Canal and the Bab Elmanbeb Strait. The passage is narrow and the shortest route possible for merchant ships to travel between countries around/from Europe and Asia. It is also the cheapest and most expeditious route for commercial shipping. The Houthis and their proxy benefactor, Iran, understand this: Around 12 percent of trade goes by this route, 10 percent of seaborne oil trade, and 30 percent of international shipping container traffic. In hindsight, the Red Sea is extremely important for our global economy.
What Can We Expect?
The standoff between the Houthis and the Western allies does not seem sustainable in the long run. Is the expense really worth it? Some analysts suggest the long term cost is not on our side, as The Hill reports …
The cost of taking on the Houthis is also becoming more apparent as the defiant fighters show no signs of stopping and could lock the U.S. into a long conflict — and it’s throwing the world into a tough spot.
“North Yemen is becoming like North Korea when it comes to firing rockets over the seas,” said Mohammed al-Basha, a Yemen and Middle East expert at Navanti Group. “It’s going to be a long-term issue for not just us, but for the world.”
The cost offset is a growing concern considering, for example, that the French navy launched Aster 15 missiles roughly costing $1.1 million per missile to target and shoot down Houthi drones that cost at most $20,000 thousand. The U.S. navy launches $2 million missiles to take out those same drones.
Cost and sustainably is a concern since the first Houthi attacks almost $105 billion worth of ocean freights have been forced to use more expensive routes to deliver and trade their cargo. This has resulted in shipping insurance soaring tremendously potentially raising the cost of living once again. That can leave a financial hole globally.
The Red Sea crisis and the coalition formed as a result of the Houthis’ attacks may be creating a situation that is unsustainable. It also warrants enough concern that the Biden administration's approach, along with other Western entities, could indeed drag us to another war.
JASMINE BELLO is a Fellow with the Civic Literacy and Media Influence Institute at Learn4Life