Don't Underestimate the Role of Violent Crime in 2022
Spikes in violent crime will play a very prominent role in voter decisions next year
Publisher’s Riff
Philadelphia finds itself at 524 homicides as of this writing, along with nearly 2,200 people non-fatally shot in just 2021 alone - and before the end of the year already surpassing last year’s totals. The response to that from the city’s progressive-reforming District Attorney Larry Krasner last week was that “We don't have a crisis of lawlessness, we don't have a crisis of crime, we don't have a crisis of violence” - and, understandably on some levels, the entire city went apopleptic considering it’s obvious that it’s going through a “crisis of violence” it can’t seem to control.
But, Krasner is not really alone in his assessment; many Democrats nationally - not unlike the second-term Philadelphia DA - keep making this same mistake: randomly dismissing the severity of spiking violent crime trends in communities they represent or that they heavily rely on for electoral support. If Philadelphia’s violent crime crisis was disproportionately victimizing White people (and, of course, it’s not), not only would the full weight of the crisis be acknowledged, but the city itself would have called a state of emergency months ago as part of the response (it hasn’t).
The reluctance to acknowledge rising violent crime trends - and their impact on certain communities - for what they are has been a habit that has particularly hobbled Democrats since the Great Election Loss of 2016. Even then there were signs of bubbling violent crime in major cities like Philadelphia and, even then, Democrats and progressives were quick to establish wonky contrasts between the violent crime of recent years to the devastating record crime waves in the 1980s and 1990s: “the data show it’s not as bad now as it was back then.” Statements like this are tone deaf, dangerous and have a scent of racism to them. That is of little comfort to Black communities living through the moment of that violence, such as what’s happening in major urban centers now, and left to deal with the after-effects.
As a result, Republicans are seeing another political opening to further weaken Democrats heading into 2022. Democrats ignore that at their own political peril, as does the collective Black political, media, religious and community activism space which is virtually silent on the issue for a number of reasons.
Not only is 2022 important in terms of federal level House and Senate elections, but it gets even more localized with gubernatorial and state legislative races. Local issues, such as violent crime waves, will become more prominent and of great concern to voters, with many White voters prompted to lean in favor of a state or federal Republican candidate who is viewed as “tough on crime” and many critical Black voters staying on the sidelines out of frustration, indifference and cynicism. Progressives will insist on an insufferable focus on criminal system reform and police accountability as priorities over anti-violence prevention … without giving any real thought to real public safety concerns; they’ll say that it’s all about simply keeping people out of jail and making bold investments that have always been lacking. That might be partly right, but violence-stricken communities need immediate response and relief now. Hence, there’s a need for balance between restorative justice and policing, an ability to fight all fronts simultaneously. Democrats and progressives need to achieve that balance and dominate the public safety conversation in a way that’s sensitive and resonant to impacted groups.
In the meantime, the political reality is that while violent crime might not be as bad as it was 30 years ago, it’s fast arriving at that point. From The Atlantic a few months ago …
A historic rise in homicides in 2020—and continued bloodshed in 2021—has incited fears that after years of plummeting crime rates, the U.S. could be headed back to the bad old days, when a crime wave gripped the country from the 1970s to the 1990s.
But the FBI’s “Uniform Crime Report” for 2020, released Monday, suggests something stranger: Perhaps America is in the midst of what is specifically a violence wave, not a broad crime wave. Even as violent crime rose, led by significant jumps in murders and aggravated assaults, property crime continued a years-long decline.
The murder rate rose by nearly 30 percent, the largest increase on record. There were about 21,500 murders, or 6.5 per 100,000 people. Aggravated assault, the most common form of violent crime, rose 12 percent.
Perceptions are everything. Recent polling data suggests that as violent crime rises, the electorate is becoming more nervous. According to YouGov, crime might rank low among policy concerns when placed on a list, but it is among the top several issues voters will likely identify as most important to them, with specific demographic clusters exhibiting high rates of concern for various reasons …
A more recent October Axios-Ipsos poll also shows violent crime as a major concern …
Majorities of Americans believe (correctly) that violent crime has increased this year compared to last year and (incorrectly) compared to the early 1990s. Fewer feel this impact locally, particularly those in suburban and rural areas, and largely feel safe when in their community.
More than six in ten Americans (61%) believe violent crime is up since last year and more than half (58%) believe violent crime is up compared to the early 1990s.
Fewer (31%), believe crime is up in their community and nearly three quarters (72%) feel safe when they are out — up from 56% in September of 2020.
The picture is slightly different for urban residents, where crime has increased the most. Four in ten urbanites believe crime is up in their community, compared to about a quarter of those that live in suburban (27%) or rural areas (27%).
Similarly, Americans in urban areas are less likely to feel safe in their community (65%) than those in suburban (75%) and rural (79%) areas.
In the meantime, a dozen major cities have already broke their homicide records, according to ABC News ….
Some of these increases are happening in states that are important gubernatorial or U.S. Senate or even state legislative battlegrounds. How much violent crime rates have an impact on the outcomes is still an open question. But, it is a very important one that Democrats, especially, need to answer as Republicans are now using every means, to push violent crime as a leading narrative. What voters will be driven by the issue? What voters will be depressed enough from it not to bother voting at all?