Democrats Should Not Assume Everyone Understands What's Happening on Capitol Hill
Will the public have patience for this current mess and more mess to come over the next 397 days up until election 2024? Who will they really blame - and punish - by then?
Charles D. Ellison | Publisher’s Riff
Yes, Republicans are imploding, engaged in all-out “GOP-on-GOP” violence (as a close friend calls it) and are putting their inability to run a government on full display. That we can absolutelyestablish from the latest episodes over the past few weeks as Congress - because of House Republicans - was right at the cusp of federal government fiscal destruction and almost had us shutdown … again. And we can see that we’re more than likely headed for another dramatic standoff in November with the absence of a House Speaker (thanks, in full parts, to the Republican Party).
Democrats, from rank-and-file party strategists and activists to the House Democrats watching this mess unfold, are clearly reveling at the sight of their opposition party imploding right before our very eyes. That might be something fun and entertaining to watch for political insiders. But, these days, stakes are immeasurably too high for partisan tit-for-tats. Democrats must be careful not to get too immersed in the glee of watching Republicans fold like this - not because Republicans deserve any empathy, because of course they don’t. But because it’s important to help the general American public understand what really is happening in Washington, D.C. these days and to help, in any way they can, to reduce the broader public anxiety over it.
It will be crucial for Democrats to show the very stark contrast between their responsible governance approach (because we sure didn’t see this level of chaos under House Speaker Nancy Pelosi) and the utter chaos non-governance style of Republicans. That’s key. Definitely hit all categories of street to stress that there is one party that knows what it’s doing and can stabilize society while there is another “barely existing, crumbled party” that is destabilizing society. That’s an easy and winnable narrative. But this is not just about winning. This is more about restoring public confidence in governing while educating it, somehow, about how these events transpire. Right now, it seems Democrats are assuming the public knows whats happening or understands or sees the contrast. But does it, really?
Will the public have patience for this current mess and more mess to come over the next 397 days up until election 2024? Who will they really blame and punish by then?
From what we’re seeing, that same public is fraught with confusion. It seems inclined to blame everyone, not just Republicans.
In the polling data before public views post-near shutdown and on the performance of now former Speaker Kevin McCarthy ousting, a small plurality (29 percent) blamed Republicans for everything …
Still: most (32 percent) blamed everyone - Republicans, Democrats, Biden - equally for government dysfunction and meltdown. Democrats, of course, are reveling in the fact that Republicans are imploding. But, they better hope the general public understands what's happening in D.C. Don't just assume since civic literacy in this moment is low.
The most recent YouGov/Economist polls speak to that. A large share of Americans heard little (50 percent) to nothing about the shutdown crisis, with shares of “nothing at all” growing larger along racial lines …
Based on what they are hearing and do know, most Americans do believe shutdowns will be normal …
But when it’s time to give credit to who was most responsible for averting the shutdown, the resulting answers are actually not what many would expect. Most respondents blame everyone equally. And when comparing the three opposing parties - President Biden (7 percent), Congressional Democrats (19 percent) and Congressional Republicans (21 percent) - respondents actually give House Republicans a couple points more credit for managing that crisis than House Democrats. The results are fairly consistent across race with whites far more likely to give Republicans credit for managing the crisis than Democrats … despite abundant evidence showing not only did Republicans create the crisis, but House Democrats provided the necessary votes to avoid a shutdown.
More troubling is how President Biden’s combined disapproval numbers for handling the shutdown crisis (42 percent) are actually much higher than Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (39 percent) … former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s disapprovals are actually the lowest (37 percent) …