At Top of RNC Week, The State of the Race
Where do things stand the week after Democrats convene and the start of Republicans meeting up
Publisher’s Riff
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With the all eyes now on the Republican National Convention this week, it’s good to take a quick look at polling landscape for the incumbent President Donald Trump and challenger former Vice President Joe Biden. This is a week after a widely touted Democratic National Convention and the top of a week where Republicans roll out their agenda in the final stretch months of general election 2020. The DNC, however, has clearly raised the bar on the RNC: the RNC Monday experienced nearly 30 percent fewer viewers than 2016 and far fewer viewers than the first night of the DNC.
Recent Notable Polls
Biden shows a decent, but not sizable, post-convention bump in the CBS/YouGov tracking poll …
Democracy Corps shows Biden gaining a 3-point edge over Trump …
Also note the recent AP-NORC poll …
Key takeaways from a Knight Foundation poll on college students …
Averages
This is the Real Clear Politics average today (last week, it was Biden ahead by 7.7) …
The Five Thirty Eight forecast is virtually unchanged …
Very negligible change in Biden’s lead in The Economist forecast here compared to last week ….
Electoral College Forecast
Five Thirty Eight shows Biden gaining 2 electoral college votes since last week …
No change from last week at 270toWin
The Princeton Election Consortium shows Biden gaining 17 electoral votes …
The Electoral Vote Map stays the same …
B|E Average …
Popular Vote: Biden (52.6%) +8 percent
Electoral College: Biden (324) +151 EV
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