As The DNC Begins, Here's What The Latest Polling Tells Us
a B|E Brief
As the Democratic National Convention (DNC) commenced in Chicago, with thousands of delegates enthusiastically converging on the Windy City, along with media, thousands of activists and thick, seemingly impenetrable layers of security, it was good to get a sense of where the presidential race stands. We’ll also perform this exercise at the end of the convention to see how it was received by voters who watched it.
At the moment, Vice President Kamala Harris is enjoying an overall average 2-3 point lead over Trump, according to an aggregation of the latest polls. Harris is exactly 2.6 percentage points ahead, according to 538’s updated average …
In 5 of the 7 key battleground states, Harris leads Trump according to a recent analysis of polls by Semafor …
The most recent updated prediction by Race to the White House shows Harris with a far greater chance of winning the presidency compared to Trump …
According to Pew Research Center as of last week, the race is virtually tied …
With enthusiasm among Democratic Party constituencies continuing to grow (however, there’s still slight worry when looking at Black voter numbers, which should be higher than they look right now) …
But, other key polls at the top show Harris ahead by 2 or 3 points, including this CBS/YouGov poll …
While the number of Republicans saying they will vote is still a percentage point higher than the number of Democrats, that number has declined or stayed flat since mid-July, compared to a 6 percentage point spike for Democrats since that time …
