As DNC Starts, The State of the Race
A quick overview of the presidential polling numbers as two weeks of party conventions get underway
Publisher’s Riff
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As the Democratic National Convention kicks off virtually today (Monday), let’s take a quick high level look at where things stand nationally in the race for president. This is also near a week after Vice President Joe Biden’s highly anticipated and historic selection of Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) as his running mate.
Recent Notable Polls
There’s been quite a lot of conversation around how slim of a lead Biden maintains in this recent post-Harris pick CNN/SSRS poll …
Another ABC News/Washington Post (Langer Research) poll shows what we’ll call a slim majority of Americans approving of the Harris pick, 54 percent to 29 percent (compare to results from previous picks) …
But, going back to the ABC News/Washington poll today and we see Biden with an overall 12 percentage point lead …
The problem for Biden is a fairly significant enthusiasm gap - it’s on the way up, but Trump is still far ahead in that respect. Note: it is on the rise and much higher than where it was March. But, maybe the virtual convention this week also changes that dramatically …
The latest Yahoo! News/YouGov poll shows Biden overall by 11 percentage points and maintaining leads across all major gender, age and and racial demographic groups (even a 1 point lead among White voters). It should be noted: that Biden is still under 80 percent support (at least in this poll) with Black voters (and take note of the 5 percent for “Other”) …
Averages
Here’s what the RealClearPolitics average looks like at the moment, with Biden ahead …
This is, still, a rather slim lead considering the state of things and the degree of complete negligence displayed by the current Trump administration. That would suggest this race is far from decided and presents significant, uncertain challenges for Biden.
Here’s the FiveThirtyEight forecast …
The Economist model also shows Biden averaging ahead …
Electoral College Forecast
Here’s what FiveThirtyEight is projecting for the Electoral College, with Biden ahead …
270toWin also shows Biden ahead, with 6 states in the “toss-up” column …
Sam Wang’s Princeton Election Consortium …
Here’s the Electoral Vote Map …
B|E Average …
Popular Vote: Biden +7.6 percent
Electoral College: Biden +107 EV
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