17 Days More ...
Overall, the numbers have been moving in a positive direction for Biden/Harris - but, there's still a chance Trump "wins."
a Lincoln Park Strategies feature
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Less than three weeks to go, which in 2020 terms is a lifetime. To put this in perspective, three weeks ago President Trump had not picked a SCOTUS nominee, he had not yet contracted COVID (well … maybe), Senator Mitt Romney was still deciding whether or not he had a backbone (he didn't find one), and skateboarding with cranberry juice while singing Fleetwood Mac was not a thing (thanks, Tik Tok). We also hadn't experienced the "debate," and there were no Fly on Mike Pence Twitter accounts.
Overall, the numbers have been moving in a positive direction for Biden/Harris. Right now the chances of Biden winning the Electoral College is sitting at 90 percent. That is good news but there is still a 10 percent chance Trump wins.
Democrats are currently favored to win a net of 3 seats in the Senate and one 50/50 toss-up (Iowa), which would put the chamber at a 50-50 tie or Dems +1. Similar to the point above, there is still a chance that Democrats come up short as well as a chance that they end up +6 seats. We will see what happens over the next few weeks, but our feeling is that either just about everything flips to the Democrats or most don't. It is more likely that they end up tied or +6 seats rather than ending up somewhere in the middle.
As always, we hope you find the data interesting.
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