The Russia-Ukraine War Isn't Just A Direct Hit On The U.S. And Europe - It Hits Everywhere Else
Archer | CLMI
Since February 24, 2022, life in Ukraine changed overnight as Russian forces entered the country and began a full assault on the former, once nuclear-armed Soviet Eastern Bloc nation. Millions have fled their homes and found their daily lives destroyed. But the war’s impact does not only touch Ukraine. Neighboring countries, governments and people around the world have felt the effects and consequences of the Ukraine-Russia war. Fresh uncertainty over whether it ends is a constant factor as dominant American foreign policy remains unclear - from lack of confidence in Ukraine and deference to Russia at one point to now hyping Ukraine as the ultimate victor.
The Impact On Ukraine
Media and public discussion often discusses the toll of the war, military and civilian casualties, in broad terms. We also know that the war has left a disastrous toll on civilians primarily in Ukraine from a combination of direct combat deaths, displacement, mental health struggles, poverty, refugee and hunger crises. Estimates vary. Since the war started, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission estimates “… the deaths of at least 13,883 [Ukrainian] civilians, including 726 children, and 35,548 injured, including 2,234 children. “ The highest number of civilian casualties occurred this year according to ZMINA Human Rights Centre …
Resulting food insecurity and poverty has intensified. The war had put many families into poverty and food insecurities. By March 2023, 11 million Ukrainians, nearly a third of the population, were said to face hunger. The war has taken a heavy toll on mental health, with roughly 30% of the civilians living in constant stress, struggling with anxiety and trauma caused by the violence. Households have lost access to electricity and clean water while some micro farmers continue taking hits from the war, with land destroyed, or just left unused because of the fighting.
The Impacts On Neighboring Countries
Neighboring countries are also feeling increasing pressure on their security policy, economies, as well as food, manufacturing and energy sourcing. Russia now tests European defenses and response protocols of NATO sphere countries, particularly against historically neutral, but now defensive, Finland and Sweden applying and joining NATO. Other countries Poland, Lithuania and Finland, and Germany, have significantly increased their defense spending throughout 2023 and 2024.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute …
All NATO members increased their military expenditure in 2024. Total military spending by NATO members amounted to $1506 billion, or 55 per cent of global military expenditure. Of the 32 NATO members, 18 spent at least 2.0 per cent of GDP on their militaries, according to SIPRI methodology, up from 11 in 2023 and the highest number since NATO adopted the spending guideline in 2014.
Meanwhile, millions of Ukrainian refugees have crossed into Poland, Moldova, and other nearby countries, seeking safety and security from the war. Poland alone hosts over a million refugees which has placed pressure on housing, schools, and healthcare systems, since the sudden population increase has stretched its resources to a limit.
The Global Impacts of the War
But there are other impacts less seen.
Defense
The conflict has, as security experts know, changed the very face of how military forces worldwide prepare for and carry out war. The use of drones, AI and other once unconventional combat methods, along with new technology innovations on the battlefield, are now being watched by and sketched into military planning in other countries.
As Politico reports …
The rapid advancement and widespread use of inexpensive observation and strike drones — in the air and on the ground — have transformed warfare in Ukraine since 2022 and is one of the biggest reasons Ukraine has managed to bring its far larger adversary to a stalemate. What is surprising, however, is how the pace of innovation has continued — yielding small tactical breakthroughs like the soldiers’ surrender and also technological leaps that have fundamentally altered battlefield tactics across the entire war zone. In recent months, the so-called kill zone — the zone of sustained and lethal exposure to enemy fire — has expanded far beyond the range of a rifle or a mortar. Soldiers on both sides are in constant danger when they are as far as six to nine miles from the contact line.
And global defense company stocks are rising as a result …
Geopolitical Realignments
The war has also caused marked shifts in current geopolitical arrangements and partnerships … strengthening or weakening them according to past, present and predicted relations. As Georgetown’s Journal of International Affairs notes …
Putin’s second correct assessment is that non-Western countries, particularly China, would support Russia. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent crisis in Russia-West relations did not undermine China-Russia strategic alignment. Other major non-Western partners also appear willing to strengthen cooperation with Russia despite the war in Ukraine, revealing that Russia’s global isolation is a myth. Vietnam, an economic heavyweight within ASEAN, is allegedly a friend of the United States. Nonetheless, Vietnamese President To Lam recently welcomed Putin in Hanoi on June 20, 2024, announcing that Putin had contributed to “peace, stability and development.” From July 8 to 9, 2024, Narendra Modi—the leader of the world’s largest democracy and also allegedly a U.S. ally—visited Moscow and thanked his “dear friend” Putin for his commitment to the Russia-India relationship, which “has been tested multiple times and has emerged very strong each time.”
Food
Yet, there are impacts on global food supply chains, as well. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine accounted, combined, for nearly 30% of wheat exports and 20% of corn . When the fighting began, Ukraine’s Black Sea ports were blocked, cutting off grain shipments, which started to drive prices up. A temporary deal in July 2022 reopened the port. But in mid-2023, Russia withdrew, once again causing food prices to spike and jeopardizing millions of people in food-importing countries. The uncertainty hit regions like Africa and the Middle East, where many nations rely heavily on Ukrainian grain.
Energy
Energy markets were thrown into turmoil, as well. European countries that depend on Russian natural gas started looking for alternative supplies, while pushing aggressively for clean energy renewables. In the meantime, high prices for oil and gas have caused disruptions that have made inflation rise in many countries far from Ukraine and Russia, thereby raising electricity prices. The conflict is showing a ripple effect, mostly in household budgets. Still, U.S. liquefied natural gas exports could become a major winner in this situation, depending on the Russian fossil fuel industry’s ability to recover. The situation also depends very heavily on the future of renewables, with a keen eye on European countries who are already fast building clean energy infrastructure in response to a changing energy sector.
Russia has deepened its military and economic ties with countries like Iran, becoming a major buyer of Iranian drones for use in Ukraine. In the meantime, strengthened cooperation within NATO and imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia help Europe, as well as its ability to supply Ukraine with weapons and aid. However, this divides and tests NATO and European Union countries, mostly ones backing Ukraine and those maintaining a fragile, yet stable, interaction with Russia.
This war has proven that the impact of conflict in one part of the world never stops at its borders. It impacts everyone else. Ukraine faces destruction, hunger, and displacement. But pressure points are happening elsewhere, with the war showing us how global interconnectedness works - for better or for worse - in so many ways. This is why peace in Ukraine matters so much, and maybe that’s what motivates greater diplomacy on it most.
LOLA ARCHER is a Fellow at the Civic Literacy and Media Influence Institute at Learn4Life
