Never Heard Of Madagascar? Now's The Time To Find Out More About It
Sanchez | CLMI
Madagascar is an island located to the southeastern coast of Africa. It is actually the fourth-largest island mass in the world, ranked behind Greenland, New Guinea and Borneo. It’s known mostly for its landscape, exotic wildlife, and a highly diverse array of cultural influences due to its location of many widespread influences. Its population is 33 million, with GDP estimated at nearly $20 billion (in U.S. dollars) in 2025 and GDP per capita is a little over $600. Unemployment stands at 7% according to the African Development Bank Group, and there was some nominal growth in 2024. As ADBG reported …
Real GDP is expected to grow by … 4.0% in 2026, supported by agriculture, extractive industries, tourism and telecommunications. The inflation rate should continue to fall, reaching 6.7% in 2026. The overall budget deficit is expected to increase to 4% of GDP in 2026. Public debt would rise to 53.5% in 2026. The current account deficit is expected to widen to 6.4% in 2026. However, risks linked to climate shocks, geopolitical and trade tensions remain high.
Gradual growth, however, is now uncertain due to a direct hit on the country’s economy from rising oil prices resulting from the Iran war. Last month, the government declared a 15-day state of emergency in response. Still recovering from the overthrow of the previous government by the military last year, protests are beginning to brew again pointing figures at the new administration as ill-equipped to manage the country.
But what’s most significant about Madagascar is its strategic value, particularly as we’re focused on the war in Iran. There is the critical importance of trade in the Indian Ocean, and the neighboring Mozambique Channel is key to a stable flow of trade. Access to these global lanes has, for decades, caught the attention of major geopolitical power players such as the U.S., Russia and China. There is the added importance of key economic factors such as resilience projects, fishing, tourism and a regional “Blue Economy initiative” that’s gaining interest from Madagascar’s government. As the Consortium of Indo-Pacific Researchers notes …
Notably, emerging countries in the past have used strategic islands for power projection. It has been propounded that island, including Madagascar will shape the new framework for a security architecture” in the future, which concomitantly combines its unique “difficult histories, complex identities, regional associations, and future aspirations” into the regional calculus that great powers must consider. However, besieged by a plague induced by climate change and all the while swaying in the rapidly charging currents of the Indo-Pacific, Madagascar holds a precarious geopolitical position in the region. The island has inherited rich minerals—including nickel, cobalt, and ilmenite, and other natural resources—yet it remains one of the least competitive nations on the continent. This has provided the opportunity for aid and investment from other countries, such as Japan, China, and Russia. At the same time, the United States retains its position as one of the largest bilateral donors to Madagascar.
However, although Madagascar is an active and immensely strategic country, it experiences the severe impacts of climate crisis several times a year.
Crises In Madagascar & Impact
Madagascar has faced a number of environmental crises, whether it be by drought, cyclones, crop pests, or disease outbreaks. The population has been hit with a total of 7 cyclones since 2025. As of the first two months of 2026, Madagascar has experience one cyclone per month. Each disaster clocked a speed of about 131-155 miles/hour. Total death tolls for both reached 73, with over half a million impacted, including over 60,000 displaced, 811 injured and more than 120,000 homes destroyed.
Due to the impact of these two cyclones, and the other five from the previous year, one alone caused the island to lose a significant level of crops. Food insecurity has risen given the combination of worsening cyclones and locust infestations since 2024.
Consequently, more than 1.2 million civilians are suffering from food insecurity in Madagascar. About 11 districts that were being closely monitored in 2025 had a level of IPC (Infection Prevention & Control) at 3 or 4: 139,000 high levels of IPC.
Nearly, 560,000 children under five are severely malnourished, including 45,200 cases due to the spread of malaria in July 2025. In addition, with the impacts of the cyclones in rural and populated towns, many medical facilities shut down, and contaminated water, the government is unable to manage or control any crisis.
Madagascar and U.S. Relations
An examination of the relationship between Madagascar and the U.S. is important in this context. Heavy impacts from climate crisis are causing unexpected fractures in trade, with Madagascar feeling the brunt of that, and the geopolitical positioning. The U.S. imports many materials from Madagascar, including essential rare minerals such as apparel, vanilla, titanium, cobalt, and nickel, many of these important for technological development. Furthermore, imports from Madagascar reached about $753.23 million in 2024 alone. In comparison, Madagascar imports just a fraction of U.S. products to their country at $53.4 $53.4 million USD in that same year. Most exported goods the U.S. brings into Madagascar are sophisticated technologies such as nuclear reactors, boilers, electronic equipment, medical apparatus, etc., which make up about 15% of the country’s exports.
Nevertheless, even with the continued climate impacts in Madagascar, the islands economic outlook appears to grow slightly as it continues to export goods. Except for vanilla, cloves, coffee, seafood, and minerals, Port Toamasina, for example, was struck by February’s cyclones thereby withholding exports.
A Perfect Geopolitical Case Study
In January, the United Nations World Food Programme & European Union built a. $800,000EUR humanitarian hub for the city of Manakara. The humanitarian hub is intended for the government of Madagascar to store necessities in case of any future crisis. By February 2026, an additional $70 million in aid was sent with the intention of restoring necessities.
But, beyond climate crisis response and management, there are other reasons to examine such heightened global interest in Madagascar.
It’s important to understand that Madagascar is a perfect case study in the growing tension between increasing climate crisis events and geopolitics. The country, as noted, is a major maritime “choke point” offering substantial strategic value to geopolitical powers searching for military and economic supremacy in key regions and oceans. Since the beginning of 2026, for example, we’ve seen heightened interest from the Trump administration as it increases U.S. government and aid into the country. Health officials from both countries convened a 2-day summit in December in Madagascar’s capitol to forge the framework for a $175 million 5-year deal commitment addressing malaria, maternal and child health, polio and global health security issues. Shortly after, the U.S. provided 5,000 tons of food assistance as part of a $12 million investment.
Countering that, however, is a much more direct and robust collaboration between the Russian military and the new military-run Madagascar government. Just this month, Russia facilitated the delivery of infantry fighting vehicles and other forms of combat gear and small arms in what was called a “Russian military-technical aid handover.” The Russian Embassy in Madagascar announced that the goal is to “strengthen [Madagascar’s] defense capabilities and develop the potential of the national armed forces”. Madagascar’s transitional president Colonel Michaël Randrianirina has indicated that he is open to all types of international partnerships, viewing the ideal collaboration as “win-win”.
How do countries, particularly in underserved and impoverished regions, manage those relationships? And how do they navigate climate crisis and the rising economic, food and military instability from such, especially when it comes to superpower interest … or interference and control? Can African countries handle it one their own or do these disruptions signal a new model of colonialism? These are key questions, and Madagascar offers some fascinating answers despite its low profile.
ANGELA SANCHEZ is a Fellow at the Civic Literacy and Media Influence Institute at Learn4Life.
